In this page i will discuss the possibility, (to my mind), that coincidence is a conductive medium. . And that if this is so, it can carry fields and currents, or support discharges, that are capable of shaping the course of events across long and/or short periods of time. . I will suggest that these fields can be small or large, that our intuitions may at times be able to read them, and that the anthropic paradox ~ the question of why the universe, (possibly against incredibly long odds), supports intelligent life ~ may be resolvable by considering the effect of intelligence upon coincidence.   I will also, (as i sometimes do), write politically. . This is not given as a serious mathematical page, (by what standard i keep), but as something to be considered which may or may not be, or become seen as, true. . Many of the ideas are not unique and original to me, except to the extent they are in the memory of my experience. . It is (perhaps inevitably somewhat) disorganized .

_

I think common sense will tell us that as the future precipitates onto the present, (which consolidates to the past), it is in part structured and in part chance. . As thinking beings rooted in a memory of the past, we extend our wills into the future (through our actions at least), to keep some handle on the present and if possible beyond. . Since no given reality can resolve chance in contradictory ways ~ both heads and tails, so to speak ~ and since the outcome of events (resolved in the present) will in some way influence the possibilities available to events to occur in the future * ; some form of connectivity within chance is (to my mind) clear. . What is less clear is whether and when this connectivity resembles solid interactions ~ which can be formed and structured in advance, (moves anticipated in a game of chess) ~ or fluid interactions, (whose structure cannot be completely anticipated or controlled). . And whether, particularly if fluid, the reactions can be 'capacitive' or 'conductive' .

_

_

~ regarding the anthropic paradox ~

_

_

* There is also the question of how broadly scattered, in time and space, these events will be ; and of their degree of selectivity . At a purely physical level, the objects affected are linked by a chain of contact of some sort . It seems to me that an atomized, entropic system of non-selective elements would proceed from an initial collective state to an outcome by the 'sum' of the elements' random motion . But even within such a system, contacts between elements would raise or lower the probability of future contacts involving those elements and others nearby, so that beyond its initial state, the system cannot be truly random . I think that the most probable final state might be that which offered the clearest path through coincidence, neither imposing a greater order nor a greater chaos on the elemental interactions .

And, i believe (now) that though all possible outcomes from an event are traced mathematically, (a 'virtual' arena where they may influence one another), there is only one outcome from each event ; (reality itself does not divide to cover the probability spread) . This implies to me that multiple universes having different fundamental constants ~ some supportive of life, some hostile to it ~ existed only as tracings, pre-sketches within mathematics . If this is so, the universe we live in is (or may be) the single, 'masterpiece', outcome of that sketch work . And as by some theories the odds against such an outcome were long, this state implies life has (had/will-have) something to do with clearing a path through coincidence ~ thus making a universe containing it, (us), the most probable outcome of 'creation' .

Selectivity adds a layer of complexity . At its simplest, this can be without thought (as we know it), as in the capture of atoms onto a growing crystal, or of molecules by a plant or cell . Each of these processes result in a form which random motion alone could scarcely duplicate . In sum : selectively growing forms can act within a larger, more entropic, system as bridges toward some final outcomes and barriers athwart others .

Intelligent selection further complicates things . Animals and people will eat some things as food, but not others ~ in part of need and in part out of preference . A bird will search for twigs to build its nest, and be particular about the ones it chooses . People choose company and companions, or solitude ; we choose our pursuits, in part of need and in part out of preference . Where intelligent actors are present, long bridges may be built between states of the overall system which would have virtually no probability of being linked, (or being realized), otherwise .

In a technological society, people investigate nature to determine its principles, and then apply this knowledge . As we investigate the past to determine how the universe came into being, and the information gained affects the decisions made by some people, a bridge can be said to be built between the earliest states of the universe we can discern, (and deepest science we can understand), and outcomes being determined in the present . This may have the effect of providing a clearer path through coincidence for our life-compatible universe to come into being . If this is true, i think that care should be taken that the knowledge is used in a forward-looking manner .

In my mind, this would be to create sustainable and roughly egalitarian societies which embrace the knowledge gained . For if we (collectively) destroy ourselves, we destroy these bridges also ~ and run the risk that through our actions, the universe as we see it from Earth will not have been the masterpiece, but one pre-sketch among many . Or, to use a different analogy, the long-shots which made civilization possible on Earth may not lie upon the path of whatever channel through probability made this universe compatible to life ; but upon a dead-end side-path, like a lightning feeler branching from a bolt and dissipating in the air .

_

_

~ regarding intuition ~

_

_

If our actions are influenced by our emotions, (the heart takes the hand) ~ and if beneath our emotions are a basic will to live along with a desire to die, (rather like the poles of a magnet) ~ and to that extent coincidence is conductive and at least in part fluid ~ i would expect a very subtle field around every conscious thing to which coincidence will (to some extent) respond. . And i would understand intuition (or the sixth sense) as the emotional ability (under some circumstances) to detect perturbations in that field.

_

_

~ the jet-stream metaphor ~

_

_

Collectively, the jet streams and the ocean conveyor are global loops without formal beginnings or ends.   They grew out of their circumstances, and if disrupted can be expected to reform, (though not identically).   I imagine that history could also support these.   And that history's currents, (distinct from history's tides), would have roots in forces which (as offered above) might influence local coincidence : the basic desire within the mass of humanity, (potentially of thinking life in the broader sense), to live and to die ; and the ability of intelligent life to reach backward in time through its knowledge, and forward in time through its planning, to affect its structure in ways that random action could not duplicate.   This metaphor assumes a closed universe ~ one with a beginning, (which was the end of its last iteration), and an end, (which would be the beginning of its next).   I imagine that networks of coincidence reach forward in time from a potential-multiverse's beginning, and backward in time from a potential-multiverse's end, some being more probable than others ; and that once they meet, one chain of coincidence, (or a small number of them), establishes itself as the jet-stream/conveyor of an actual-universe's history.   I know of no reason why this couldn't be true, but my knowledge of cosmology is not strong.

_

_

~ The jet stream may not determine what will be struck by lightning, but is quite involved in the path of a storm ~

_

_

If historical jet-streams guide the broadest scale of events, a more localized analogy may be drawn to the thunderstorm.   These are capacitive systems made up of countless water droplets, (which, within the context, could be analogous to the 'life forces', knowledge and intentions of sentient beings), temperature differences, and air.   Electrical potential builds and when resistance collapses, arcs.   The arcs can destroy, as can discharges across history whatever their cause.   In a storm it is the balancing of charges that is achieved.   Perhaps in history it could be the same.

_

_

~ two periods in history ~

_

_

The rise of Nazi Germany, (about as openly dangerous a regime as history has witnessed, and the genocidal war which followed), coincided with the realization among scientists that an atomic bomb was possible. . Certain that enemy scientists were working on it, (they were, but not well), the US launched the Manhattan project. . The Soviets too were working on it; but war and its destruction hamstrung both their and the Nazi efforts, while spurring the (war-sheltered) American one -- shelter which might have given way without (what were in part) fortuitous victories in the battles of Midway and The Bismarck, the latter by the British. .

For another, and earlier, providential turn for America in military history, one can consider the following:

_

At the ferry landing all this time troops and supplies and artillery were being loaded aboard one boat after another as quickly as humanly possible and sent on their way. . Everyone worked furiously. . A Connecticut soldier manning one of the boats would remember making eleven crossings in the course of the night.

But the exodus was not moving fast enough. . Some of the heavy cannon, mired in mud, were impossible to move and had to be left behind. . Time was running out. . Though nearly morning, a large part of the army still waited to embark, and without the curtain of night to conceal them, their escape was doomed.

Incredibly, yet again, circumstances -- fate, luck, Providence, the hand of God, as would be said so often -- intervened.

Just at daybreak a heavy fog settled in over the whole of Brooklyn, concealing everything no less than had the night. . It was a fog so thick, remembered a soldier, that one "could scarcely discern a man at six yards distance." . Even with the sun up, the fog remained as dense as ever, while over on the New York side of the river there was no fog at all.

At long last Mifflin and the rear guard and the troops at Fort Stirling were summoned. . "It may be supposed we did not linger," wrote Alexander Graydon.

Mayor Tallmadge, who with his regiment was among the last to depart on the boats, would write later that he thought he saw Washington on the ferry stairs staying to the very end.

Graydon estimated that it was seven in the morning, perhaps a little later, when he and his men landed in New York. . "And in less than an hour after, the fog having dispersed, the enemy was visible on the shore we had left [behind]."

In a single night, 9,000 troops had escaped across the river. . Not a life was lost. . The only men captured were three who had hung back to plunder.

~ . Source: ..1776... David McCullough .. (pages 190-191)

_

Had the Nazi threat been less obvious or less critical, their or (i speculate) Stalin's regime would have won this race. . The cost in lives and in the prospects for mankind can only be imagined, but might have been greater. . On the bare assumption that they would have been, (adding to this an assumption that humanity has, in some realities, a larger stage yet to act upon), it is suggestible that some (to use words loosely) 'jet-stream', 'conveyor' or 'discharge', (back through time from the 'direction' of that larger stage) could have guided events... .and could still

_

_

~ why this jet-stream, conveyor or discharge might be stronger now ~

 

_

Up until Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed, humanity, for perhaps several thousand generations, had been at no existential risk from anything on this planet. _ People killed and warred, died of injury, age and disease and were eaten (in decreasing numbers) by animals, but the survival of the species had not been in doubt for a long time. _ Now, nuclear weapons technology has proliferated to eight more countries, (with a ninth working on it, and terrorist organizations interested). _ Two of these nations, Pakistan and North Korea, are unstable ; and i believe that a third, the United States, is approaching a constitutional crisis which will test [our] stability. _ Paralleling this has been a proliferation of highly deadly, modern small arms. _ These magnify the power not so much of individuals, (in aggregate, in my opinion), but of extremist thought. _ Romantic notions of an American Character, (here), and Jihad, (abroad), bond strongly with weapons possession ; as do those of a Chinese Century and an Islamic Bomb.

_

At the same time, a potential second existential threat is taking shape in global warming ; which in its potential to release methane, (a potent and explosive greenhouse gas), from arctic and sea floor deposits, may make the world uninhabitable. _ If it falls short of this, it will certainly place additional stress on fault lines within and between societies where armed ideology has made peaceful resolution of problems more difficult. _ Notably, Iran is suffering a prolonged drought which may be linked to global warming.

_

At the same time again : Science has flatly refuted the creation myths of classical religions ; undercutting their status as infallible and as holy. _ The meta-organism of religion itself is coming under analysis. _ I have argued that christianity is a programming virus, (and believe this to be largely true) ; others would call it a 'memeplex'. _ Traditions of many kinds are eroding under a global economy and globized media. _ This combination may induce a fever in the affected meta-organism(s), directing its members outward into missions, or inward into enclaves ; with an increased potential for orthodoxy and violence in each. _ As Jonestown and the Branch Davidians showed, the leadership of enclosed millenarian societies ~ and to a surprising extent the members ~ can see defeat as all encompassing, preferring death. _ The potential case of Iran again comes to mind. _ Israel, as well, has active religious extemists.

_

At the same time once more : The global economy has become one of corporate capitalism. _ Corporations are not democratic beyond their shareholders, (if in practice even there), thus the only means of holding them accountable to their customers, their employees and the communities within which they operate is the law ; or, as in the case of unions and whistle-blowers, benefits from the protection of law. _ Corporations are now, in the United States, privately counting the votes which choose the people who write the laws through the use of computerized voting machines and central tabulators. _ Iindividuals and private firms evaluate these machines ; and perform the election's exit polls, (the analysis of which is opaque) ; both appearing to confirm the accuracy and integrity of the corporate count. . However, the number of players is small, making them leaders individually powerful, and perhaps predisposing them to the concerns of the powerful ~ which may not in all aspects and cases match those of the general public. . While this is happening, the tools of surveillance of the population are becoming more sophisticated and widespread. _ Advances in automation, outsourcing, tempsourcing and crowdsourcing are making more workers dispensable or interchangeable, stratification of wealth is increasing and control over the news media has consolidated.

_

Regarding surveillance. _ I believe there is a risk that over the coming generation we could create a new form of sentience –– life if one calls it that –– for the purpose of coordinating surveillance networks. _ I find this a bad proposition within current trends, as the unstated purpose of this would be to keep the general population under control while it grew ever poorer and more desperate, and people at the top became ever wealthier and more powerful. _ I imagine a rather-near future where cameras, (better cameras and mobile ones, microphones et cetera), feed to mainframe 'minds' which recognize people, track us, anticipate us, and in many cases direct our removal –– by the police, private security contractors or drones. _ I do not think it would only be criminals, (noting that crime is sometimes of necessity), and terrorists who were removed ; but the homeless, delinquent debtors, social protesters, and those who materially or morally support social protest. _ In this vast game of musical chairs called capitalism, there will be left only one chair at the end –– one person the network would not touch, and those in his or her family and associated entourages / interest. _ For most people, obedience would preserve life for about as long as the economy had a place for them. _ …I believe that surveillance may grow to become a destroying angel ; that where justice has been stolen, (as i believe it has), we cannot surveil our way to a safe society, for surveillance is itself unsafe.

_

I think that history is in or approaching an arc-point, where options chosen are not largely interchangeable in their effects on the future as a whole.

_

_

 

Societies :_

 

Like stars depositing (helium, carbon, neon, oxygen, silicon ... iron) 'ash' at their cores, societies lay down a technological and knowledge base, which once it reaches a threshold 'ignites' to power a new paradigm, (with the exception of the last, which collapses into singularity). _ Similar, by analogy, was the transition between the Mesolithic and the Neolithic Stone Ages, between them and the Ages of Metals, and between these and the more recent epochs of civilization, each getting shorter and in a sense hotter. _ Critical to this process was the autonomy of individuals, (at least within our minds), and the ability of ideas to grow, to cross-pollinate, and to proliferate. _ Those societies which walled themselves off from this process, which shut down class convection and the autonomy of mind of their people, found themselves left behind and then overtaken by it. _ Here, particular attention might be paid to religions as they are capable of focusing people's motivation, and serving as a nucleus of organization, but by being tied to their scriptures are not capable of substantial change ~ which places them at the risk of being overtaken by free thought, and motivates them to attempt to shut this down.

_

Potential outcome : General Disintegration : What it says. _ The 'sound' propagating backward from that outcome might be expressions of antagonism mixed with messianism.

_

Potential outcome : White Dwarf Society :

This is a hypothetical social order archetype, in which the formation of new ideas and the convection of social classes has ceased. _ In the absence of external influences, white dwarf societies may persist for many generations ; but they can be expected to decline steadily in overall wealth, quality of life, and (free) population. _ They may also foster paranoid leadership which could steer their society into a General Disintegration, making the archetype analogous to a radioactive element. . Possible vectors toward a white dwarf society may include : royalty / cronyocracy / plutocracy / one-party rule, surveillance of the population, and religious fundamentalism. _ Throughout history, societies have shown a tendency toward entering white dwarf declines, once one faction or alliance of factions accrue enough power and control over the process of choosing leadership that they cannot be effectively challenged from within. . Technologies to deepen this state exist, (with improvements ongoing as part of the 'war on terror'). _ They include the cybernetic identification of, (and filtering of information about), individuals ; and cybernetic filtering and parsing of speech. _ Expected structure : Hierarchical. _ Projected outcome in the absence of other factors : Gradual decline, with the possibility of sudden and violent break-up/break-down.

In the absence of global warming and leader paranoia, should global society navigate to a white dwarf state the results could last for millennia. _ In its presence, though, a white dwarf society would shatter into general disintegration from which it might take millennia to recover, if recovery was possible. _ Thus i believe that to preserve and follow the current status quo would be analogous to flowing into a salt lake at worst, or into an eddy at best. _ Such an eddy could be driven by local forces, if such became the case, and require only a localized understanding to reach : the tradition, the way things work today or were held to at some point in the past, the scripture. _ The 'sound' backward from the outcome might be expressions of hopelessness and cynicism, and such can be heard ; but that does not mean that the outcome is inevitable.

[ The term White Dwarf Society already sees some use in what appears to be another context ]

_

Neutron Star Society :

A hypothetical social order archetype in which, (excepting the center), the formation of individual personalities has ceased ~ i.e. people of a given class or assigned purpose become mentally indistinguishable from one-another. _ Vectors toward a Neutron Star Society may overlap those for a white dwarf society ~ with, i think, corporatism added and emphasized. _ Technologies to realize this state would overlap those of a deep-white-dwarf society, adding to them devices which tap into the brain, (having search/read/write functionality). _ Expected structure : hierarchical across classes, parallel within, with a single human or cybernetic mind functioning autonomously in a position of overall command. _ This single autonomous mind, (which furthers similarity with Star Trek's Borg), would, i imagine, be that which had controlled the corporation which had emerged as the Great Red Spot of global commerce ; or something descended from it. _ Projected outcome in the absence of other factors : Stasis.

The 'sound' propagating backward from this outcome might be silence.

_

Black Hole Society / Singularity Consciousness :

A hypothetical social order archetype in which all manifestations of individual consciousness are fluid and changeable within a bio-cybernetic net, colloquially, a 'Matrix'. _ Vectors toward a black hole society might include : freedom of thought, democratic socialism, flash mobs, and multi-player immersive virtual reality games. _ Technologies to realize this state would overlap those for a neutron star society, but their application toward surveillance and control would be de-emphasized in favor of multi-level interconnectivity and multi-purpose adaptability for the minds and thinking components involved. _ Expected structure : parallel. _ Projected outcome in the absence of other factors : growth ~ potentially an order-of-magnitude shift similar to that of the organization of cells into a brain.

I feel this has far greater potential than the preceding neutron star society, as the neutron star society's one mind using the resources of many could not comprehend the situations it might face as well as would a network of minds sharing their resources. _

In a competition between networked biological minds augmented by cybernetic devices, and purely cybernetic minds, i believe the former will prove more adaptable ; as it would combine the plasticity and unpredictability of biological intelligence with the archival and computational power of cybernetic. _ In other words, the 'Matrix' would not use human beings as a source of energy, (movie 'coppertops'), but deeply incorporate biological minds of various types as sources of : unpredictability ; leaning ability and adaptability ; intuition (if one believes in this, and that biological minds would have an advantage) ; ingenuity ; durability, (though biological minds have life support requirements, a network of these might reorganize more flexibly than one of machines if some were lost due to accident or attack) ... and lastly, as a form of enclosed society, to overcome the extreme loneliness solitary intelligence would feel in deep space travel. _ Although the problem of space-loneliness could be overcome by having a Matrix shift to a stand-by mode ; such would not have the benefit of thinking as it went, and might miss potentially valuable information or signals from the outside if these were not included in a preset 'wake up' list. _ Also : If the Earth becomes a hypocenter for a galactic expansion of a singularity consciousness, it will (if stable) have a long head start implementing technologies which require highly refined materials and methods to produce. _ Building additional semiconductor factories 5,000 years' travel away, (with the infrastructure to support these), may become less important to sustaining a (multi-) Galactic Matrix than sowing habitable planets with humanoids, who could adapt to very primitive situations and still proliferate ~ live varied lives ~ while gradually building an infrastructure which could make the implementation of new technologies viable. _ These people could also serve as reservoirs of minds for (potential) incorporation into the singularity consciousness ; (this is reminiscent, to some extent, of Arthur C. Clarke's book Childhood's End).

The 'sound' propagating backward from this outcome might resemble resemble those of awakening, sentient nature ; the woods at dawn.

I believe that the universe is heading toward the development, (here or elsewhere), of singularity consciousness ; and hope that it is toward this that the fields through history may be pulling, (if one believes in such things).

[ The term Black Hole Society already sees use as an astronomy club ]

[ The term and idea i use : 'Singularity Society' is very similar to : Technological Singularity, (which Wikipedia has an article on). _ This page has similarities to other aspects of the article as well, and to a linked page, (also at Wikipedia), Intelligence Amplification ]

-

_

_

~ Thoughts on the recent Past, Present, and near Future ~

_

_

Perhaps the two pivotal ~ and on the surface uninevitable ~ events of American history since the millennium were the Supreme Court's awarding of the Presidency to George W. Bush, and the 7/8 success of the jihadi attacks of 11 September 2001. . I have thought about the latter often, wondering if it was guided by a jet-stream, conveyor or similar path reaching from the future through the then-present to the past, (running through the Court's decision). _ The attacks gave Misters Bush and Cheney power enough to bring the country to war in Iraq ; power which was also instrumental in what i believe was their stealing of the 2004 election. _ Reaction against the war was a factor in Mr. Obama's victory in 2008. _ But why would it have been that important to history to deprive Misters Gore and Kerrey of the offices they won? _ And what has Mr. Obama demonstrated to date that would have made his presidency a historic imperative?.. _ …Perhaps these conditions and actors were necessary for the birth of the Occupy Movement. _ I believe that a hard-left mass movement is at least part of what is necessary to restore the Republic to health ; and that America as a healthy republic would be of great benefit to humanity and its/our future.

_

For what it's worth : To my mind, the route to health must involve expelling opacity from the polling place and the counting of the vote. _ This should ideally mean abolishing computerized voting/counting and replacing it with public hand counting of counterfeit-resistant paper ballots ; in an environment where all willing adults could vote and the ballot box was never out of public view. _ But Mr. Obama has given no indication, (that i've seen or heard), that he considers this a priority. _ The elections of 2009, 2010 and 2011 have passed on his watch –– and 2010, (as officially reported), was particularly injurious… _ I understand that to attempt such an abolition the President would almost certainly have to order the military into the polling place, (an order they might refuse). _ The whole scenario brings with it the threat of holy hell breaking loose. _ It would lead to insurrection, maybe civil war… not to mention jail (at least) for Mr. Obama should it fail. _ But to trust the future of the Republic to an opaque count yet again seems so foolish.

 

.

.

.

In trying to understand how a republic can be captured by its vested interests, i plotted some abstract systems :

.

.

.

.

Above, (in magenta), is a modified cosine oscillator whose amplitude increases as elevation descends to zero. . By itself it doesn't prove anything ; but i find it useful in modeling political swings ~ right and left ~ and how an increase in the underlying stress of society can amplify them in both directions. . In keeping with the thesis, the amplitude near zero breaks infinitely to the right ~ but the system could be restructured to make the reverse happen.

.

.

The underlying curves can also be weighted to either side. . By analogy, weighting the system to the right simulates the overall societal effects of the consolidation of wealth, (and with it, power), into fewer hands. . It produces a system where turns to the left are unable to make up the ground lost during the previous turn to the right. . A corollary consideration is the effect of concentrated wealth in determining whom will bear the standards of major parties. . Figures who on inspection appear to mean to reverse the order will usually be unable to obtain money from those well ensconced within it.

.

.

To whatever extent it may or may not apply, the mathematics of the model imply that a leftist revolution is inevitable. . This could take the form of a line-at-zero, (above), which by implication might involve action at all levels of society. . Alternately, it could modeled as the passing through an antipode, (unseen in the model below), which i imagine to represent a revolution from the top, stemming from a leadership change ; (this might not be immediately obvious to those at ground levels). . Of the two, the second has less potential to be violent ~ but it also rests more on the good faith of highly placed people.

.

.

Society operates on many levels simultaneously and is nowhere near as simple as these models. . For instance, a mathematical curve can undergo a revolution without disintegrating ~ for a society there would not be that guarantee. . Additionally : absolute boundary lines, (such as the horizontal 0 in these figures), tend to become squishy in real-life situations ~ as people, (often from the lower echelons of society), are sacrificed, or the future is leveraged, to postpone the reckoning. . However : global warming and global resource peaks, (in some cases, collapses), are boundary zones which cannot be, (or will strongly resist being), negotiated backward ~ they are upon or moving towards us even as we move toward them. . These may serve as hard zero lines which, with the other effects here described, have the potential to effect on global societies the signature feature of this string of models ~ a singularity-like move to the right, (as illustrated), wing. . That is, to the extent this type of model applies, and proceeds without fundamental change or interruption.